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Bert van Wee: Abstract and background reading

Title image Bert van WeeSHORT ABSTACT:
In this lecture I argue that we need a next generation of LUTI models that model trends such as peak car; decline in population, shops, services, etc., impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on activity patterns and travel, cycling policies, and maybe also pandemics like COVID19. The current generation of LUTI models cannot adequately answer the policy questions raised by these trends.

READ MORE: To support decision making in the area of the transport and land-use system Land use transport interaction (LUTI) models have been developed during the past three decades. These models are often developed to model the interaction between the land use and transport systems for relatively large-scale spatial developments, like new residential or office areas, new main roads, or railway lines. The models are an alternative for the traditional four step transport models that do not assume the transport and the land use system to interact. The added value of these models has been shown, the most important advantage being that they show that the transport system, or more specifically transport infrastructure changes, influence land use. In this lecture, based on a journal paper published in the Journal of Transport and Land Use, I argue that we need a next generation of LUTI models that model trends such as peak car; decline in population, shops, services, etc.; impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on activity patterns and travel, cycling policies, and maybe also pandemics like COVID19. The current generation of LUTI models cannot adequately answer the policy questions raised by these trends. However, a major problem is that the future of these trends is uncertain, and we lack empirical research into the dynamics between these trends and their wider impact on land use and transport systems. Nevertheless, LUTI models can, by utilizing what-if calculations, help explore future trends and their implications. Other challenges for LUTI models include the calculation of a wider set of accessibility indicators, the inclusion of interactions between key actors in the transport and land-use system—serious gaming may prove a useful way to explore these interactions—and the development of dynamic visualizations. The paper on which this lecture is based, is only “a” view and is one that could be contested. So the aim is more to discuss the future of LUTI models, than to give a stale mate for what should be done.

BACKGROUND READING: Bert’s paper ‘Viewpoint: Toward a new generation of land use transport interaction models’ is available at https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/611.